Analysis: The End of the American Middle East Following U.S.-Israeli War With Iran

Some analysts have noted that prolonged diplomatic pressure and armed intervention by the United States and Israel have yet to remove Iran's leadership from power. Israel's hardened approach toward Palestinian affairs, combined with a withdrawal from diplomatic engagement, has put pressure on longstanding efforts by the United States to forge a lasting security partnership between Arab nations and Israel. President Donald Trump's military operation was framed as a continuation of existing policy, with the stated objective of neutralising Iran's capabilities through concentrated force in a single strike. According to available reports, those who drew up the operational plans — as with planners involved in earlier engagements in Iraq and against Hezbollah and Hamas — are said to have placed excessive confidence in what military force could achieve, underestimated the durability of opposing forces, and taken for granted that allied backing would be forthcoming. Indications point to an ongoing transition away from longstanding frameworks, with a new arrangement gradually taking hold. Debate over the long-term reach of US global power has accumulated over many years, though observers note those doubts have now intensified to a degree that may be difficult to walk back. Short of an unexpected breakdown of Iran's governing structure — a scenario analysts view as improbable in the near future — the country may look to strengthen and broaden its foothold across the region by drawing the United States into drawn-out, geographically scattered conflicts. Reorienting foreign policy away from support for undemocratic governments, tolerance of allied misconduct, and dependence on military means to manage adversaries may create opportunities for a more productive regional engagement — one that some analysts contend could foster the durable stability long cited as a policy objective. The Middle East's prevailing order — established under George H. W. Bush's presidency in the aftermath of the Soviet Union's collapse and the removal of Iraqi troops from Kuwait during the 1990–91 Gulf War — has been built on a foundation of American predominance, analysts have noted. The result divided the region into two broad camps: one grouped around the United States and comprising Israel, Turkey, and most Arab nations, and another, more loosely organised bloc drawing together Iran, Syria under the Assad family, and non-state actors such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The policy resulted in measurable economic and social hardship across much of the population. Support for free-market reform policies has been associated with privatisation efforts that some analysts argue disproportionately benefited wealthy interests while doing little to improve the financial circumstances of the general population. The Biden administration's approach to drawing Saudi Arabia into the agreement may have misjudged the strength of popular feeling on the Palestinian question within the country, while also failing to account for the developing situation in Gaza. Gulf state leaders had received no advance notice before hostilities broke out between the United States and Israel, even though those governments had expressed reservations about armed intervention and diplomatic negotiations with Iran, facilitated by Oman, were still under way. Confidence among Gulf Arab states in their alliance with Washington declined following a coordinated military operation with Israel that did not achieve the removal of Iran's leadership. The United States did not intervene as Iran moved to restrict passage through the Strait of Hormuz, an action that carried implications for commercial shipping throughout the Persian Gulf. Israel continued its military operations against Hezbollah notwithstanding a US-Iran memorandum of understanding concluded in June, with no indication that its ground forces in southern Lebanon were preparing to withdraw. Countries that have experienced cuts to foreign aid from the United States may also contend with reduced investment from Gulf states, as petroleum-dependent economies in that region manage their own budgetary constraints.

Analysis: The End of the American Middle East Following U.S.-Israeli War With Iran

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Analysis: The End of the American Middle East Following U.S.-Israeli War With Iran

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